Our general investment approach remains the same as depicted in last week’s commentary. We maintain our preference for big cap quality stocks with good balance sheets, relatively stable cash flows and stable margins. Volatility across sectors continues to be supportive of a well-diversified global portfolio for long term investors. We will continue to closely monitor China’s “reopening,” which we expect to have many “fits and starts.” Continued U.S. Dollar (USD) weakness, along with China’s “reopening” could provide a “tailwind” for the materials sector, and base metals in particular, such as copper. This combination should be beneficial for most commodities. Chinese leadership appears to be now more committed to growing China’s economy.

Since our November 18 commentary, we have been anticipating the focus of financial markets to vacillate between inflation and interest rate concerns on the one hand, and escalating concerns over the extent of economic slowdowns and the effects that a slowdown will have on margins and earnings. This week’s trading in U.S. securities showcased how quickly that this focus could shift. We continue to recommend that long term investors should try to take advantage of this volatility to better position their portfolios.

As the Fed’s “quantitative tightening” (QT – contraction of the Fed’s balance sheet) progresses on a pre-determined course, we expect liquidity to contract in financial markets, including in U.S. Treasuries. We have been highlighting this for quite some time.

We maintain our preference for big cap quality stocks with good balance sheets, relatively stable cash flows and stable margins. Volatility across sectors continues to be supportive of a diversified portfolio for long term investors. We continue to assume that the Fed will not cut the federal funds rate in 2023 unless there are very dramatic changes.