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Market Commentary

As discussed in our 2022 year ahead outlook “Get Your Lies Straight”, we anticipate elevated market volatility throughout this year as policy makers navigate the trade-off between inflation and growth. Thus far, our expectations are playing out and the velocity of the recent downturn in global equity markets has certainly grabbed the attention of investors.

Previous Week’s Issues

“All Together Now”

“All Together Now”

The swiftness and the severity of the increase in bond yields and the equity market downturns, accompanied by rotation into Value stocks in lieu of Growth stocks and starting at the very outset of January, was very much like we expected. We understand that the general trajectory of equity markets during and after the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening of monetary policies phase should be greatly determined by whether the tightening is into a still robust economy. We view PMI levels as the best indication of the strength of the economy, and we anticipate a continuing robust global economy for at least the majority of this year.

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“I Ain’t Gonna Work on Maggie’s Farm No More”

“I Ain’t Gonna Work on Maggie’s Farm No More”

The longer inflation is allowed to persist, the more likely will such expectations become more “entrenched.” The Fed is concerned that wage gains above worker productivity gains could possibly lead to a wage-price spiral type of inflation. Such inflation would tend to be more persistent. Expectations of wage gains, along with a tight labor market, are manifestations of the beginning expectations of continued elevated inflation.

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“Get Your Lies Straight”

“Get Your Lies Straight”

We agree with the consensus that selective stock picking will become increasingly important during 2022 to achieve optimal returns. While we also expect volatility, we expect that volatility to occur earlier than consensus. We believe that excess cash at the beginning of this year presents the best risk/reward position to take advantage of the anticipated market declines. We would not be surprised if the market downturn in the S&P 500 exceeded 10% before rebounding to close with single digit returns. We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to exceed consensus expectations. Furthermore, we also expect oil prices, economic growth rates and inflation rates to all exceed consensus estimates.

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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

Today’s volatile markets are not a surprise to us. As we stated in last week’s commentary: “We continue to expect ongoing volatility in financial markets.” We also highlighted that the Omicron variant “will be a continuing concern. Its ultimate effects on economic activity and financial markets remain unknowable. We view the latest downturn in interest rates as problematic.”

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2021 Year-End Planning Checklist

2021 Year-End Planning Checklist

As we head into the new year, now is the time to take stock and assess whether your wealth strategy utilizes the appropriate strategies to address the current tax law, soaring market returns, and any changes to your goals or family circumstances.

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Fearless Women: Luxury Edition

Fearless Women: Luxury Edition

Both fearless women in their own right, Lindsey Boyd, Founder of Rondel Jewelry, and Sarah Flint, Founder of Sarah Flint shoes join our host, Susan Kim, CFA®, to share their visions, successes and challenges, and how they are building incredible luxury brands.

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Details of Build Back America Act Have Begun to Leak Out

Details of Build Back America Act Have Begun to Leak Out

House Democrats have circulated initial proposals around tax policy changes that they want to include within the Build Back America Act, the massive tax-and-spending budget reconciliation bill that party leaders hope to move through the chamber in the coming weeks. Many of the proposals within the bill are what was expected in one form or another, but there are a few new wrinkles.

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