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Articles, Webinars & Media Appearances
Undone: Fed Expectations and the Pivot Trade Unraveled by Economic Data
Expectations for a Fed pivot to rate cuts in 2024 have been “undone” by stickier inflation readings and resilient economic growth statistics, resulting in an “unraveling” of market trades that expected to benefit from a friendlier Fed.
Avoiding the Negativity Vortex
Negativity often masquerades as intellect. Seeing the glass half empty is perceived as analytical, cautious and sophisticated. It’s a sales technique that captivates because we want to believe there’s a perfect solution – even when we know there is no such thing.
Second Quarter Outlook
This week we shared our outlook for the economy and markets in the second quarter of 2023. For much, much more detail, please download the slide deck for our complete analysis of the second quarter macro and market environment.
Wayne’s World Markets: “Party on, Powell!”
As Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hosted the post-Federal Open Market Committee meeting press conference this week, he probably should have ditched the suit and worn a black t-shirt and ripped jeans instead, because he seemed to send one Wayne Campbell-like message to markets: “party on!”.
Mark Twain, Jack Ryan, and The U.S. Dollar’s Dominant Reserve Currency Status
Investors have been handwringing about the end of the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s dominant reserve currency for decades, yet the dollar has maintained its spot at the top of the reserve currency stack through these doubts and challenges.
Linger
Inflation is lingering around, meaning U.S. economic data continues to support our view that there is little urgency for the Fed to ease policy as swiftly and aggressively as bond markets have been pricing in.
