The Weekly Edge

Machinehead: A Cyclical Recovery in the Age of AI

Machinehead: A Cyclical Recovery in the Age of AI

This week’s Weekly Edge looks at the week’s strong semiconductor earnings and details a nascent recovery in broader cyclical activity. This cyclical reacceleration is an important watch item, as it could change the Fed’s path for expected rate cuts, while also impacting equity and bond markets in various ways.
We note that in the past 35 years, the Fed has never begun cutting rates when Manufacturing PMIs were rebounding/reaccelerating. Though this continues to be a “Strange Landing” cycle, we are doubtful that the Fed will move to ease policy in a meaningful way if this cyclical recovery continues.

Separate Ways

Separate Ways

Though strong rallies in broad equity market indices to start 2024 are hardly wince-inducing like Journey’s music video, under the surface, we have continued to see stark divergence between market leaders and laggards, with a notable continuation of 2023’s leadership profile to start 2024. We think this performance is due to earnings revisions going separate ways.