The Weekly Edge

The Federal Reserve has trimmed its policy target by 175 basis points (1.75%) since September 2024, but longer-term Treasury yields are actually higher today than they were then.

U.S. consumers are so emo right now that they are reporting their worst, most sour, most negative sentiment since the depths of COVID and the Great Financial Crisis.

Why are long-term interest rates rising? From Fed leadership uncertainty and resilient growth to Japan’s bond shock and geopolitics, we break down the “usual suspects” driving today’s rate volatility.

Of the things from 2025 that we would like to see more of in 2026, at the top of the list is Oasis reunion concerts (maybe with even more B-side cuts, like those included on the band’s The Masterplan 1998 compilation album).

Though the initial critical reception of 1992’s The Muppet Christmas Carol was mixed (a thumbs down on Siskel & Ebert!), modern wisdom and taste have caught up to the precious pointedness of the pint-sized production, with the movie now being lauded as “the greatest Christmas film ever made”.

This week, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its final monetary policy gathering of the year, and it used the occasion to slash its policy target rate one more time. While the economic data flow remains impaired by the 43-day government shutdown, the committee saw enough weakness in the labor market to feel it needed to ease policy for the third time in as many meetings.

Cameron Dawson breaks down why GDP and EPS forecasts for 2026 are “Right Back Where We Started From,” what’s driving revisions, and where markets may go from here.

We hope our NewEdge Wealth clients and readers are having a wonderful Thanksgiving week. Whether you’re reading this in advance of the big day or after, as your body digests the feast, we offer this edition of the Weekly Edge for your consumption. In it, you’ll find a collection of charts showing some of the macro trends for which we are most thankful this year.

With Thanksgiving next week, it is incredible that the 2025 holiday season is already upon us (time flies when you live in interesting times).

New York City’s Mayor-elect, Zohran Mamdani, has generated lively debate among investors regarding their municipal bond holdings and the financial future of New York City.