Much like a weepy country song at a karaoke party, PMIs are souring the mood, calling into question the cyclical recovery in the U.S. and challenging the ever-higher growth narrative that is fueling markets. We think growth forecasts and markets should be singing “Need You Now”, pleading with PMIs to confirm the dominant resilient-growth narrative.
We think that growth forecasts continue to be “so much more than everything” to risk asset performance, with stable and rising forecasts as the key underpinning of recent risk asset strength.
An aging economic cycle and equity markets that are facing renewed headwinds make Bob Seger’s 1980 classic a fitting analogy for this week’s Weekly Edge, where we are taking stock of the current U.S. equity earnings season.
As the first quarter of 2024 drew to an end, Cameron Dawson, CFA®, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, and members of our investment team reviewed the current market trends and key investment sectors and provided their forecast for the upcoming quarter.
Expectations for a Fed pivot to rate cuts in 2024 have been “undone” by stickier inflation readings and resilient economic growth statistics, resulting in an “unraveling” of market trades that expected to benefit from a friendlier Fed.
This week we shared our outlook for the economy and markets in the second quarter of 2023. For much, much more detail, please download the slide deck for our complete analysis of the second quarter macro and market environment.
As Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hosted the post-Federal Open Market Committee meeting press conference this week, he probably should have ditched the suit and worn a black t-shirt and ripped jeans instead, because he seemed to send one Wayne Campbell-like message to markets: “party on!”.
Investors have been handwringing about the end of the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s dominant reserve currency for decades, yet the dollar has maintained its spot at the top of the reserve currency stack through these doubts and challenges.
Inflation is lingering around, meaning U.S. economic data continues to support our view that there is little urgency for the Fed to ease policy as swiftly and aggressively as bond markets have been pricing in.
The first and most important point in this analysis is: just because forward returns could be lower in the future does not mean investors should stay out of the equity market. Instead, a period of lower price returns demands greater care by investors in order to reach return goals.