The Weekly Edge

After this week’s softer CPI and sharp movement lower in bond yields, is this time different? Is it truly “all over now baby blue” for this tightening cycle?

This week we are providing our assessment of the third quarter S&P500 earnings season which could be appropriately summarized by AC/DC’s “Back In Black”, as the broad index has returned to profit growth after four straight quarters of declines.

Lags can be a powerful force, not just in music, but also in monetary policy. When it comes to lags, Jimmy Page walked so the Fed could run. One of Page’s innovations was capturing the Led Zeppelin’s “ambient sound” in recording, which is why the album sounds paradoxically rich and raw at the same time.

In Orlando, there are two large Halloween events that happen every year at the town’s theme parks. And after another tumultuous week in markets, we wonder which Halloween event the equity market is attending this year.

The When We Were Young Festival is this weekend, and though no NewEdge Wealth team members are joining the angsty youth in attendance, we can’t help but think that the emo music from this festival matches the mood of today’s market.

If an economic recession were to materialize in 2024 or after, renewed earnings weakness could be expected, challenging the current consensus forecasts of strong growth next year and the year after.

2023’s string of stronger-than-expected economic data, continued with this week’s jobs data, has reminded us of the iconic 1967 scene in You Only Live Twice where a pronounced-dead Bond emerges from the depths of the ocean alive, well, and immaculately dressed.

The major shifts in markets over the course of 3Q23 had us thinking about one of the greatest (true) stories in rock and roll history.

Liam Gallagher of Oasis began life having no interest in music, wholly uninterested in his brother Noel’s passion and prowess for songwriting.

Let’s do the “Dance of the Clairvoyants” and see what messages the equity market leaders and laggers could be sending us about the future path for the economy and broad equity indices.

After falling for most of 2023 as inflation moderated, the Misery Index has ticked up meaningfully for the first time this year, capturing the pinch that consumers could feel if inflation readings continue to reaccelerate.