Latest Investments & Planning Insights

Overall, we do not see economic growth giving the Fed The Reason to cut rates in the near term, with the U.S. economy exhibiting much more resilience to short term interest rates this cycle. But given the wild cards of President Trump’s second term and the funding challenges of the Treasury, we expect to see continued jawboning around a desired path forward for Fed policy, even if growth remains resilient.

Fed rate cuts appear to be on hold. Global government bond markets are in retreat. And stocks have been jittery in the opening days of 2025. The trend for each of these hinges, to varying extents, on whether the U.S. job creating machine can continue humming in 2025. The December U.S. employment report gave us hope that it can.

The investing world has awoken from a two-week holiday slumber, and a new year has begun. 2025 starts, as most years do, with more questions than answers. But the outcome for the global economy and financial markets seems unusually uncertain to us. High valuations and market concentration combined with softening economic data and rising policy uncertainty mean the picture is murky, at best.

Currently, there is a splintering in financial markets and economic data that is likely to prove temporary, but as this splintering mends, markets could be singing Gin Blossoms’ “Follow You Down” along the way.