“Slightly lower taxes for some, similar taxes for others” doesn’t sound like an exciting policy platform. But any time we’re talking about a major U.S. tax and spending bill, the stakes are high.
Market Insights
Say You’ll Be There
The question going forward is what this self-inflicted tariff uncertainty will morph into as time goes on. Will tariffs prove to be a mere inconvenience to U.S. consumers and corporations, with these entities being able to absorb and navigate the impacts without a significant hit to the economy?
Eye of the Hurricane?
The U.S. economy sustained a significant shock on Liberation Day, one that has already shown up clearly in consumer and business survey data. We now brace for the impact on corporate earnings and real economic activity, assuming the tariffs are not withdrawn in the interim.
Quarterly Outlook: The Space Between
Being in the space between should feel somewhat familiar to investors, as we experienced a space between back in 2022. Uncertainty and market volatility was pronounced that year, as investors debated how a rapid rise in Fed interest rates and the associated weakening in sentiment/soft data would weigh on real economic activity. Forecasters slashed estimates for U.S. GDP and S&P 500 EPS growth, broadly expecting a recession to be the end result of that space between, while equities experienced a bear market in anticipation of this weaker growth.
We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together
This week felt like a breakup on two fronts: first, the trading relationship between the U.S. and China on the trade front, and second, the financial relationship between U.S. financial assets and the rest of the world’s desire to hold them.
Karma Police
Much like the exasperated runner at the end of Radiohead’s iconic “Karma Police” music video, this week President Trump effectively threw a lit match into a stream of gasoline that was connected to global markets.
The Power of a Data Driven Approach: A Discussion on Equity Markets and Quantamental Investing
On March 27 at 3:00 p.m., we hosted an exclusive webinar with Jay Peters, CFA®, Managing Director, Investment Solutions, Equities at NewEdge Wealth, and our newest Investment Advisory Board Member Adam Parker, CEO & Founder of Trivariate.
April Market Volatility Update
We came into 2025 expecting a pickup in market volatility. It has not taken long for those expectations to be met, and then some. As we feared it would, the combination of optimistic businesses and consumers with equity and credit markets priced for perfection proved to be combustible when policy uncertainty was added to the mix.
Leveraging Uncertainty to Provide Stability
With uncertainty on the rise and market sentiment faltering, investors may be starting to second-guess their portfolio risk to avoid future haymakers that equity markets may throw. Portfolio strategies that provide investors with a degree of downside protection against equity loss and defined return outcomes can be a powerful tool to keep otherwise fearful investors aligned with (their financial) plan.
Goodbye, Sunshine
The Street has started coming around to our view of more challenged equity market returns and lower GDP growth for the year, singing “Goodbye, Sunshine” to bright S&P 500 targets and cutting estimates for the full year. The median YE 2025 forecast for the S&P 500 has been trimmed from 6,600 in mid-February to 6,430 today (Bloomberg).