As we look into the back half of 2023, we can foresee a scenario where the market behaves like a duck. On the surface, the market may appear to be making little movement, plodding sideways, while under the surface we could see dynamic churning and rotations of market leadership.

As we highlighted in our mid-year outlook, one of the most surprising dynamics we have seen in 2023 is the surge in valuations back to pandemic-era levels, especially given the backdrop of elevated interest rates and hawkish Fed policy.

Another week, another string of better than expected data in the U.S., suggesting that forecasts for economic growth in the second half of 2023 remain far too low. It’s a growth party in the U.S.A.

In this piece, we revisit our thesis for the economy and markets from the beginning of 2023, identifying the divergence of equity valuations from yields/Fed policy as the key source of our surprise. We then look at the two main drivers of this yield divergence and equity strength (liquidity and AI optimism).