Latest Investments & Planning Insights

There may be only one duo that is more at odds than 1977 Stevie Nicks and Lindsay Buckingham, and that is the Payroll and Household Surveys for employment in the U.S.

Like the quarrelsome rock n’ roll couple, these two measures of U.S. labor data “went their own way” in the jobs reading for May.

This week we are providing our assessment of the U.S. small and mid-cap equity market, a universe of nearly 2,500 listed companies that are generally classified as having market capitalizations from $50M to $30B and have traditionally represented about 20% of the total U.S. equity market cap.

As U.S. large cap indices “crossed the frame” of prior highs to trade near or to new all-time-highs, it is helpful to take an assessment of the tailwinds and headwinds for equity returns from this point (instead of “casting quarters into wells that hold our dreams”).

Much like a weepy country song at a karaoke party, PMIs are souring the mood, calling into question the cyclical recovery in the U.S. and challenging the ever-higher growth narrative that is fueling markets. We think growth forecasts and markets should be singing “Need You Now”, pleading with PMIs to confirm the dominant resilient-growth narrative.