Latest Investments & Planning Insights

In this piece, we’ll assess the state of the race, discuss the U.S. federal debt and deficit in the context of different political power sharing arrangements, and evaluate the candidates’ economic platforms.

Powell’s kick off to the recalibration cutting cycle and the questions that it raises highlight the incredibly Strange characteristics of this cycle overall. To begin a cutting cycle with a supersized, emergency-like cut when equity markets are at all-time highs, financial conditions are broadly easy, and total employment is at a record is a backdrop so unique that it is consistent with our Strange Landing expectations.

Something is stirring. Shifting ground. It’s just begun. This month, investors seem to have finally cast aside their inflation worries as they focus more on risks to global growth. Commodities prices have plunged, bonds are rallying, and central banks are cutting interest rates.

In many ways, recent macro and market data resembles Pearl Jam’s cooling of energy, whether we are looking at labor data or equity market leadership and returns. Of course, the biggest question facing investors is if this slowing and cooling of data “does the evolution” into outright weakness for the economy and markets.