The question of how long it will take to get back to prior highs always burns on investors’ minds during a bear market. The following historical and future scenario analysis is presented in an attempt to answer this question.
Market Insights
A Dose of Dispassion
This is not about catching the ultimate low or ringing the bell at the bottom. Instead, it is about being disciplined about long-term potential when the near-term is highly uncertain. A dose of dispassion is helpful in times like these.
Thoughts When Staring Into The Abyss
Global equity markets experienced a rapid and bruising sell-off this week. In the U.S., we are nearing the intraday lows for the S&P 500 from June, while many stocks are making new lows. Below we look to answer critical questions for this market and provide...
September Update: The 5 Charts to Watch
The source of elevated inflation has shifted in recent months. The early days of inflation were driven by Goods inflation from surging Goods demand during lockdowns and supply chain stress.
Speak Firmly and Carry a Big Hike
When Theodore Roosevelt encouraged policymakers to “speak softly and carry a big stick,” clearly, his target audience was not central bankers. Chairman Powell’s speech was significant because its message was precisely counter to what markets started to price in since mid-June.
Peak Hour: Is the Inflation Peak Finally Here?
Measures of inflation breadth (how many items are seeing big jumps in prices) and stickiness (those items that tend to see slower price changes) remain elevated. This makes the Fed’s job difficult, as it points to a long journey to get back towards 2%.
2022 Mid-Year Fixed Income Update
Recession alarm bells have been ringing louder after the U.S. economy shrank for the second straight quarter. 2022 stands as the worst year on record for bonds leading some investors to pile into municipal debt because it is considered safe.
Cruel, Cruel Summer: The Implications of Red-Hot Inflation on the Economy, Policy, and Markets
Friday’s red-hot inflation print dashed what, in our opinion, were misplaced hopes for an inflation peak and a dovish pivot. The inflation data solidified that we are likely in for a cruel summer of trading in equities, with the potential for further downside for indices and the likelihood of continued elevated volatility.
Playbook for Market Volatility
Periods of market volatility always raise two questions: how much further down do we have to go and what actions should we take in response? Unfortunately, the former cannot be known with certainty and is outside of our control; however, the latter is within our control.
An Update on the Fixed Income Market
Municipal bonds, the mainstay fixed income security for retail and ultra high net worth investors, started 2022 as “expensive” when measured as a percentage of Treasuries. That changed in a seeming blink of an eye.