When considering the range of possibilities in private credit—primarily those in the private sector via investment funds as opposed to traditional banking channels — it’s beneficial to understand why companies are choosing to remain private and why access to traditional bank capital has become more challenging.
After a roaring rally from mid-March until late July, U.S. equity markets have entered a correction phase. So far, the correction has been shallow and healthy, not exhibiting signs of the bends, or a sharp correction after a powerful rally.
As we pass the halfway point of the second quarter U.S. equity earnings season, this week we are providing our assessment of the current earnings environment, evaluating the expectations for earnings in 2024, and examining if more fundamentally driven equity performance is possible, which we believe will be key if markets are to build on gains generated in the first half of the year.
Try as they might, the Federal Reserve has done little to slow the beat of U.S. economic growth.
It has been just under a year since Chairman Powell gave his curt “pain” speech at Jackson Hole, warning of the economic costs that would need to be endured in order to get inflation under control.
A year on, there is little evidence of that pain.
Chief Investment Officer, Cameron Dawson, CFA®, was joined by NewEdge Wealth’s Ben Emons, Jay Peters, CFA®, and Maxwell Snyder. Together, they discussed equities, fixed income, and alternative investments in the ever-evolving economic landscape of 2023.
As we look into the back half of 2023, we can foresee a scenario where the market behaves like a duck. On the surface, the market may appear to be making little movement, plodding sideways, while under the surface we could see dynamic churning and rotations of market leadership.
As we highlighted in our mid-year outlook, one of the most surprising dynamics we have seen in 2023 is the surge in valuations back to pandemic-era levels, especially given the backdrop of elevated interest rates and hawkish Fed policy.
We started 2023 with a mantra from Goethe: “Enjoy what you can, endure what you must.” After a roaring rally in equities and a much-improved showing from fixed income compared to 2022’s weakness, 2023 has been a year of far more enjoyment than enduring.
Another week, another string of better than expected data in the U.S., suggesting that forecasts for economic growth in the second half of 2023 remain far too low. It’s a growth party in the U.S.A.
In this piece, we revisit our thesis for the economy and markets from the beginning of 2023, identifying the divergence of equity valuations from yields/Fed policy as the key source of our surprise. We then look at the two main drivers of this yield divergence and equity strength (liquidity and AI optimism).