The question as we look to the remainder of 2023 is: has enough changed in the macro environment that the recent relief rallies in last year’s losers can continue?
Market Insights
22 Charts for 2022: A Year in Review
As the final days of December dwindle away, this time of year is filled with a sense of both reflection and expectation. Here are 22 charts that capture the turmoil, major shifts, present fears, opportunities, and (sometimes surprising) resilience of 2022.
International Update: Summary
The USD remains the key driver for relative performance of International Developed (EAFE) and Emerging Market (EM) stocks versus the US (S&P 500).
Get Back to Where You Once Belonged: How Long Until Prior Highs
The question of how long it will take to get back to prior highs always burns on investors’ minds during a bear market. The following historical and future scenario analysis is presented in an attempt to answer this question.
A Dose of Dispassion
This is not about catching the ultimate low or ringing the bell at the bottom. Instead, it is about being disciplined about long-term potential when the near-term is highly uncertain. A dose of dispassion is helpful in times like these.
Thoughts When Staring Into The Abyss
Global equity markets experienced a rapid and bruising sell-off this week. In the U.S., we are nearing the intraday lows for the S&P 500 from June, while many stocks are making new lows.
September Update: The 5 Charts to Watch
The source of elevated inflation has shifted in recent months. The early days of inflation were driven by Goods inflation from surging Goods demand during lockdowns and supply chain stress.
Speak Firmly and Carry a Big Hike
When Theodore Roosevelt encouraged policymakers to “speak softly and carry a big stick,” clearly, his target audience was not central bankers. Chairman Powell’s speech was significant because its message was precisely counter to what markets started to price in since mid-June.
Peak Hour: Is the Inflation Peak Finally Here?
Measures of inflation breadth (how many items are seeing big jumps in prices) and stickiness (those items that tend to see slower price changes) remain elevated. This makes the Fed’s job difficult, as it points to a long journey to get back towards 2%.
2022 Mid-Year Fixed Income Update
Recession alarm bells have been ringing louder after the U.S. economy shrank for the second straight quarter. 2022 stands as the worst year on record for bonds leading some investors to pile into municipal debt because it is considered safe.