This week we shared our outlook for the economy and markets in the second quarter of 2023. For much, much more detail, please download the slide deck for our complete analysis of the second quarter macro and market environment.
The Weekly Edge
Wayne’s World Markets: “Party on, Powell!”
As Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hosted the post-Federal Open Market Committee meeting press conference this week, he probably should have ditched the suit and worn a black t-shirt and ripped jeans instead, because he seemed to send one Wayne Campbell-like message to markets: “party on!”.
Linger
Inflation is lingering around, meaning U.S. economic data continues to support our view that there is little urgency for the Fed to ease policy as swiftly and aggressively as bond markets have been pricing in.
Nothing Gold Can Stay?
The first and most important point in this analysis is: just because forward returns could be lower in the future does not mean investors should stay out of the equity market. Instead, a period of lower price returns demands greater care by investors in order to reach return goals.
Don’t You (Forget About Me): Sector Performance Trends
There is more than meets the eye to sector performance within the S&P 500. This week’s Weekly Edge takes inspiration from John Hughe’s iconic film The Breakfast Club to identify strong and weak trends underneath the surface of sectors.
Machinehead: A Cyclical Recovery in the Age of AI
This week’s Weekly Edge looks at the week’s strong semiconductor earnings and details a nascent recovery in broader cyclical activity. This cyclical reacceleration is an important watch item, as it could change the Fed’s path for expected rate cuts, while also impacting equity and bond markets in various ways.
We note that in the past 35 years, the Fed has never begun cutting rates when Manufacturing PMIs were rebounding/reaccelerating. Though this continues to be a “Strange Landing” cycle, we are doubtful that the Fed will move to ease policy in a meaningful way if this cyclical recovery continues.
The Ramblin’ Man: U.S. Equity Fourth Quarter Earnings Recap
Like the myth of the “Ramblin’ Man”, whose rough-and-tumble, on-the-road lifestyle was described by the Allman Brothers Band in 1973, most S&P 500 companies and management teams continue to search for the good times while navigating a bumpy road and challenging environment for profit growth.
We Didn’t Stop the Fire: The Fed’s Take on Inflation and Growth
This week, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari published an essay titled “Policy Has Tightened a Lot. How Tight Is It?”, but we think a great alternative title would be “We Didn’t Stop the Fire”, the inflation fire that is.
No Rain: Implications of Resilient Data on Markets
For much of the past two years, the bond market has been expecting a much easier policy path than what the Fed has signaled and executed. Time and time again, the bond market has front run the Fed, expecting a shift to easier policy, but the Fed has not delivered.
Separate Ways
Though strong rallies in broad equity market indices to start 2024 are hardly wince-inducing like Journey’s music video, under the surface, we have continued to see stark divergence between market leaders and laggards, with a notable continuation of 2023’s leadership profile to start 2024. We think this performance is due to earnings revisions going separate ways.