The Weekly Edge

Broad US equity indices marched higher on the Friday leading into Memorial Day Weekend, resulting in the S&P 500 notching a slight weekly gain while the tech-heavy NASDAQ and Russell 1000 indices produced weekly gains of 1.5% – 2.5%.

There are multiple “problems” (maybe not 99!) that are driving the bond market to price in such a different outcome than the Fed’s guidance. These include concerns about the debt ceiling, regional banking crisis, geopolitical tensions, concern about flagging U.S. growth, and optimism that inflation will continue to moderate.

The first week of May proved to be action-packed: another bank failed and was acquired out of receivership, the Federal Reserve met and raised interest rates, earnings continued to roll in, equity markets experienced renewed volatility after a lull, and economic data continued to be resilient “in spite of it all”.

Congress’s gridlock and battling is a lot like two bucks fighting. Most of the time the party disputes carry manageable market risks, but occasionally this gridlock has the potential to wreak havoc on the U.S. economy and financial markets.

Don’t fight the Fed. Fighting the flow of Fed-related liquidity is like trying to swim against a powerful river current: you can swim as hard as you can, but you will make little forward progress if the flow of the current is working against your efforts.

The return of Bruce Springsteen to New York City last weekend reminded us of his 1978 song “Prove it All Night”, which he has said conveys the message “success requires sacrifice”. This is a fitting analogy for the coming U.S. corporate earnings season, which kicks into gear next week with some of the largest index constituents and economic bellwethers reporting first quarter results on April 14th.

The Technology sector seems to have it all going on these days…

Whatever the market narrative, Tech appears to be the answer, offering sanctuary to investors in any scenario.

The Fed’s response to regional bank woes, and the resulting expansion in the Fed’s balance sheet, has led many to hope that the Fed’s “villainous”, liquidity draining days are numbered, and that they will soon emerge as a market hero once more, supporting prices with added liquidity.

“Brain Damage” feels particularly appropriate to describe a week of frightening headlines and tumultuous markets that surprisingly finished with the S&P 500 higher.

We all heard the phrase “when the Fed raises rates, something breaks” so much in the past year that this aphorism nearly became stale, mostly given the backdrop of renewed calm and optimism in markets to start 2023.